Spatial distribution of the trends in potential evapotranspiration and its influencing climatic factors in Iraq

Understanding the spatial variations in potential evapotranspiration (PET) and its influencing climatic variables is essential for sustainable agriculture water resources management. However, little published research has investigated alternation of PET due to climate change case Iraq. The objective present study was analyze trends annual seasonal Accordingly, latest global ERA5-Land dataset European Centre Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 1981–2021 employed. estimated using FAO-Penman–Monteith method. modified Mann–Kendall statistical test applied evaluate significance PET, which can separate unidirectional caused by from natural variability climate. attained results indicate that: (1) Over past four decades, witnessed a significant increasing trend almost all Iraq, except alluvial plain eastern southeastern parts. (2) confirmed patterns significance, with highest increase 0.28–0.65 mm/decade southwest (3) Summer had upward 0.35–0.65 mm/decade, followed spring, autumn, winter. (4) air temperature predominant driving factor rising showing positive correlation ranging 0.77 0.88 contribution 26 94%, mainly south, central, northwest regions. reverse wind speed surface pressure particularly southeast southwest, remains offset influence net solar radiation. Overall, risen drastically change, indicating increased atmospheric demand region.